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zombie8mylunch

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And here I thought you were joking at first. :o

 

Either way! Here's a larger picture of said avatar!

zvUwKDq.jpg

 

I'm afraid of using tumbler out of fear of getting an aneurysm from reading stupid things.

Aww man, I thought it was you D: Now I'm disappointed.

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xD Oh wow, I wasn't at all!

I loved your xmas May one too! x'D I'm guessing you're a fan of Top Gear? I apologise if May is in something else because that is all I know he's from haha. My nan'd get along great with you if this is true. xD (thank you for the bigger version btw, I find it hilarious!)

Of course! The other shows that May host are pretty fun to watch as well! But, that's just me of course.

 

Aww man, I thought it was you D: Now I'm disappointed.

Womp womp. D:

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:roll::wan-01::wan-06:

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i'm looking forward to yuuki's next ballad, should put things into perspective...... number nine

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jerry%20seinfeld%20.jpg

 

What`s the deal with item drop rates?

 

I mean, first of all, if an item has a 20% drop rate, people tell me that you have a 1-in-5 chance of getting that item each time you kill that monster, so after 5 kills you should have that item...

 

Somebody should tell these people that that is clearly not how odds work because I have personally killed that monster 5 times and he didn`t drop a thing. Not a single thing.

 

What`s the deal here? I even see items nowadays with things like a 1% drop rate or less... Is there some kind of recession that the monster`s don`t want us knowing about? Because logically they should all drop the same thing every time, seeing as they are all identical right down to the last digit of their HP... But no... They`re hoarding these things away somewhere, and it sure isn`t in any treasure chests. since all I get from those things is stuff I never wanted in the first place.

 

Speaking of treasure chests, who`s leaving these things lying around? I mean, someone had to go into the hardest dungeon in the game, dragging that big chest with him. He picked the right spot to leave it, sure, there`s no doubt about that, but if he went to all that trouble surely he could lock the chest? They always seem to forget that part...

 

Back to item drops, I`m starting to doubt this whole recession thing, seeing as there sees to be no shortage of beast fangs and monster ooze. Yup, you`re going to be getting about 99 of everything you don`t ever need in the game, just like the bright idea someone had to hand out potions 40 hours into the game when you`re level 50, and have a couple thousand hp... Yup, a potion that heals 100 hit points, that should do the trick...

 

You know who I blame for all this? Someone just said the government, no they dodge the bullet on this one; who I blame is the Battle Planner, because somewhere along the way, they decided that it was a GREAT idea to stop it with all the epic hidden bosses we knew and loved that gave us good weapons and armor, and thought it would be a great idea to take the material collecting system from MMO`s, where logically, they make you pay more the longer you play, and put that whole time wasting system in offline RPG`s where you only have to pay once, basically making you waste hundreds of hours of your life for nothing, as they don`t even see a dime for it. Yeah, great idea, now I can tell all my friends that it took me 120 hours to beat the latest Final Fantasy, and oh, by the way, 30 hours of that were spent enjoying the game, the other 90 were killing endless wet rats and flans in the sewers waiting for one stinking item to drop.

 

I`d like to have a word with whoever came up with this idea...

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That is not how probability works.

If you have a 20% chance to win an item, that doesn't mean you are 20% closer to winning the item each time you try again. It just means that when you try again, you have a 20% chance to get it. Each time you try again the rate for item drop doesn't go up or down.

So if the probability of getting them item is roughly 1/5, then the probability for not getting the item is 4/5. So over five tries these are your odds:

1 try: (4/5) = 80%

2 tries: (4/5) * (4/5) = 64%

3 tries: (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) = 51.2%

4 tries: (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) = 41%

5 tries: (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) = 33%

To find the probability of getting the item after five tries you would subtract the result above from 100, so your probability should be around 66%.

For anything under 10% you should not bother with it because the math is not in your favor. For that 1% item, you only have a .05% of seeing it after five tries.

Now it's true that as the limit of the number of tries n approaches infinity, the probability of not getting the item after n tries approaches zero. But since you can't ever reach infinity, the probability will never be zero. It will just be a value very close to zero. The important point is that no matter how many tries you take, unless the probability is either 0% or 100% you can always get the undesired result.

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That is not how probability works.If you have a 20% chance to win an item, that doesn't mean you are 20% closer to winning the item each time you try again. It just means that when you try again, you have a 20% chance to get it. Each time you try again the rate for item drop doesn't go up or down.So if the probability of getting them item is roughly 1/5, then the probability for not getting the item is 4/5. So over five tries these are your odds:1 try: (4/5) = 80%2 tries: (4/5) * (4/5) = 64%3 tries: (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) = 51.2%4 tries: (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) = 41%5 tries: (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) * (4/5) = 33%To find the probability of getting the item after five tries you would subtract the result above from 100, so your probability should be around 66%.For anything under 10% you should not bother with it because the math is not in your favor. For that 1% item, you only have a .05% of seeing it after five tries.Now it's true that as the limit of the number of tries n approaches infinity, the probability of not getting the item after n tries approaches zero. But since you can't ever reach infinity, the probability will never be zero. It will just be a value very close to zero. The important point is that no matter how many tries you take, unless the probability is either 0% or 100% you can always get the undesired result.

Yeah that's why I said somebody should tell them that's not how it works.

I had no choice but to know this unfortunately with all the Math classes shoved down my throat to get in school, then for finance.

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Feeling like absolute shit. Going cold-turkey on daily double-espresso lattes with a second cup of coffee usually ater in the afternoons....

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glad that was only yesterday, gosh that was scary.

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Damn, you never get some things until they actually happen. Like just how long one can be happy about fact their favorite band's guitarist suddenly returning to studio recording stuff after 3½ years break that you thought might just very well never end. It feels just still surreal thing to happen even now after 4 days O_O. I guess musicians can have amazing power in their hands after all, wonder if they even realize it... Like surely must be there is other people too besides me for who favorite bands and musicians have such high value. I actually bet I will feel all uplifted because of all this for really long time, lol.

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I really want the Lynch. posters coming with the limited edition of the best album but it's so fucking expensive, plus shipping and all   -_- Not sure if it's worth the investment. Maybe I should just get the regular, if at all...

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friend schedules a meet up today, cancelling just before I'm about to head out.... my one day off I could have actually slept in for once.

now what, all my makeup done.. should I wash it off so I can lay down and sleep?...ugh

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As a barista, I'm offended. Please Drink Coffee.

 

lol....yea...... I didn't last long. decided to just cut back, rather than cold turkey

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when your roommate demands to bring you to the hospital because you're experiencing heart burn/acid................wow... chill out

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It's time I take a stand and be true to myself! I don't care too much that I'll lose friends but they're no good for me, sure I hang out with them in college/when I have a class break but we don't mix that well. Too rude, different or my mind is telling me that they're all two and more.

Don't think I'll be back with them anytime soon. I don't and won't/ever let people push me around. 

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mid life crisis mode

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